Although the Dawgs have won 15 of the last 20 against Auburn in the Deep South's Oldest Rivalry, Jordan-Hare Stadium undoubtedly provides one of the more significant home field advantages in college football. Worth noting that Auburn's last 3 victories against the Dawgs have come at Jordan-Hare, in 2010, 2013, and 2017. My last trip to Jordan-Hare was a successful one, I talked about it here ICYMI. The time before that didn't go quite as well, as Auburn dominated the Dawgs 40-17 in November of 2017. At least we won the tailgate that day, based on the photo evidence below!
The 2023 edition features a new head coach for Auburn, Hugh Freeze, who is off to a 3-1 start and in search of a signature win in his first season on the Plains. Despite his comments to the press this week about not sensing the hatred in the Auburn-UGA rivalry that he has seen in other rivalries, I think he fully understands how much a win on Saturday would mean to the Auburn faithful. It is going to be loud in that stadium on Saturday, you hared it here first!
After four straight starts at home, Carson Beck heads into his first SEC road game as the starting QB. The burning question in Dawgs group chats around the country center around Carson Beck. Does he have the moxie? Can a Florida native lead the Dawgs back to the promised land? Are leg tats en vogue? Beck has not been perfect, far from it. Whether it's narrowly missed deep shots last week or failing to see busted coverages, he's experienced a steep learning curve. But so far, Beck is avoiding the temptation to play hero ball and has thrown just 1 interception, which is exactly what the staff wants from him. The 2nd half of the SCAR game was a confidence booster, and I thought Beck started to let it rip it downfield. This carried over in the UAB game where he finished with over 10 yards per attempt and a QBR of 83.9. Granted, no pats on the back for doing what you're supposed to do. It's unfortunate that I can't find the link to Kirby's pregame speech before the Tennessee game last year, but as CKS mentioned in his postgame interview, the theme was "Nowhere to run, nowhere to hide". I think a similar message is appropriate for this week.
Dtru's nickels
After week 4, Bill Connelly's SP+ has Auburn ranked 35th overall (52nd offensive and 29th defensive). The Dawgs have dropped down to 2nd (6th offensive and 4th defensive), with Michigan at the top of the rankings this week.
Auburn is ranked 18th overall in the 247 Sports College Football Team Talent Composite
Among other things, Huge Freeze is known for his high-powered offenses and managing to defeat Nick Saban twice in a row at the height of the Alabama dynasty. To do that required excellent quarterback play, which is still a work in progress for this year's Auburn squad. Freeze was able to land Michigan State transfer Payton Thorne in the transfer portal this offseason and Thorne beat out Robby Ashford for the starting job. Through 4 games, Thorne is 65th nationally in QBR and Auburn has had its share of struggles pushing the ball downfield.
Jay Fair and Shane Hooks are the leading receivers for Auburn, along with FIU transfer Rivaldo Fairweather. Although the Auburn passing offense has been far from explosive so far, Fair appears to be its most dangerous weapon through 4 games and is capable of ripping off big plays.
It's no secret that Auburn has employed a run heavy approach so far in 2023. Auburn RBs Jarquez Hunter, Damari Alston, and Brian Battie have all been big contributors to the ground game, and both quarterbacks each have at least 20 carries. All 3 RBs and both QBs have gained at least 100 yards on the ground this season, so I would expect a heavy dose of that on Saturday. The run defense of the Junkyard Dawgs has been its cornerstone since Kirby Smart took over. NFL draft attrition has taken its toll on the Dawgs DL over the last 2 years, but there is still plenty of talent and experience along the Dawgs' defensive front. However, this year's unit seems to lack the dominant player that we have become accustomed to seeing. Let's see if the DL can show out this weekend. It may get really interesting if the Dawgs can't contain the Auburn ground game, especially with the new clock rules. But if the Junkyard Dawgs come correct it's going to be a long afternoon for the War Eagles.
Go Dawgs!
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