Bye, Bye, Bye week thoughts

After Week 3 of the 2024 college football season, the Dawgs are no longer on top according to Bill Connelly's SP+. Following last Saturday's 13-12 victory over Kentucky, the Dawgs dropped from 1st to 5th in the SP+ rankings. The offensive rating dropped from 2nd to 9th overall, while the defensive rating remained unchanged at 5th overall.

I was unable to watch the live broadcast of the game because I was still in Romania celebrating my grandma's 95th birthday, shoutout to her! College futbol has not yet caught on in Romania, so I relied on several group chats for updates (salute to members of All the Dawgs, Dawgies, and Dawgs Roundtable group chats). But I digress.

In the absence of special teams/defensive touchdowns or a significant difference in turnover margin, it's not easy to win a game when you are outgained by the opposing team. It was not by a wide margin, but Kentucky outgained the Dawgs 284-262. What I'm getting at is that Saturday was not a turnover riddled, fluky game reminiscent of the 2019 home loss to South Carolina (which remains the last time the Dawgs lost a regular season game at home). Unlike that 2019 loss to SCAR, the Dawgs actually had the advantage in turnover margin against Kentucky, so bad luck was not a factor in this one. You could convincingly make the argument that Kentucky deserved to win the game.

Bill Connelly pointed out UGA's postgame win expectancy against Kentucky was only 44%. I am far too dumb to understand the math behind postgame win expectancy (I distinctly remember bringing shame to my Romanian father by scoring a 58/100 on the 11th grade pre-calculus probability exam in Mrs. Morrisey's class). However, I am smart enough to think there is some cause for concern.

Dtru's Nickels

In my opening post of the 2024 season RE: the wide receivers, I mentioned that Rome wasn't built in a day. And I think we're seeing that play out in real time, maybe a bit more than I anticipated. If you thought replacing Brock Bowers, Ladd McConkey, Marcus Rosemy-Jacksaint, et. al. was going to be a seamless transition, I would have accused you of wishful thinking. Although I expected some growing pains, the lack of explosiveness in the passing game on Saturday was apparent to a degree beyond what I thought we would see.

1. Carson Beck had one of his worst games as a Dawg. After posting a QBR of 92.1 in an excellent performance in the opener against Clemson, Beck looked uncomfortable for almost the entire game against Kentucky and finished with a QBR of 69.8. I'm not ready to hit the panic button on Beck after a poor outing against Kentucky, but he definitely looked timid and made some terrible decisions that could have ended in disaster. Worth noting that Beck is still ranked 12th overall in the country with a QBR of 84.3 through 3 games. Fair to say he is figuring out how to adjust to life without a pair of early round receiving targets that are now playing on Sundays. Also fair to say that I'm starting to question my belief in the QBR stat, because I see that Cade Klubnik is 9th on the list.

2. Through 3 games, the team's leading receivers are Dominic Lovett and Arian Smith. Coincidentally, both are under 6 feet tall and listed below 187 pounds. Excellent players, but not exactly the "throw it up and go get it" type of receivers such as George Pickens, AD Mitchell, and even Marcus Rosemy-Jacksaint. Colbie Young is the only veteran prototypical, big bodied receiver on this team and he battled injuries throughout fall camp. If Young can get to full strength during the bye week, I think he will have a big role to play in the Alabama game.

3. Dillon Bell left the Clemson game with an injury, and it's possible that he is still a bit dinged up. More importantly, as the Dawgs HQ team discussed earlier this week, Bell was also unexpectedly forced into playing the X-receiver position after the July dismissal of presumed starter RaRa Thomas, which could be contributing to a slower start.

4. The loss of right guard Tate Ratledge is a massive one. Ratledge had tightrope surgery this week and is expected to miss at least 6 weeks. Micah Morris is the next man up at right guard (unless there is a reshuffling), and Mr. Morris has been a rotation piece on the OL for the last two years. The offensive line struggled once again on Saturday, which has been a hallmark of several recent games in Lexington. Earnest Greene had a rough game, and Monroe Freeling got a series at left tackle in the 3rd quarter. Not trying to make excuses for Beck, but I do think the shaky line play contributed to his poor performance. The Dawgs were able to overcome this against Kentucky, but probably won't have the luxury of leaving with a victory if there is another slow start by the OL in Tuscaloosa.

5. Does Anthony Evans get a chance to show what he can do on offense? Or is there some other hidden gem on the roster that can be a spark? It's your time to shine Mr. Bobo!  I am trying to practice what i preach, and encourage some patience. I expect the bye week will provide a welcomed chance to figure some things out.

One other note- We are SPOILED; the last 2 years the Dawgs seemed to hang 40 any time they showed up to a game. I'll give Kirby and staff the benefit of the doubt. They have done more than enough to earn that from the fans.

Freak of the Week 

This week's freak of the week is a true freshman and member of the SCAR Gamecocks, Dylan Stewart. Through 3 games, Stewart has been a havoc wreaking machine, with 2.5 sacks and 2 forced fumbles. His first step is lightning quick, and it's extremely impressive that he has managed to make an impact right away. It's not fair to make player comparisons, but I don't get paid to do this, so I'll go ahead and say it. Stewart gives me some Jadeveon Clowney vibes. On a side note, I can't believe that Clowney is only 31 years old. Makes me feel like a dinosaur.

Enjoy the bye week, Go Dawgs!